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4 Build scenarios

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Objectives of this section
Bullet point blueto provide you a good comprehension of the different types of scenarios;
Bullet point blueto help you to identify the useful methods to be used in the context of your case study;
Bullet point blueto support you in terms of technical development of scenarios by providing concrete tools and examples.

This section deals with the way to build scenarios in support to environmental management. Most of its content is extracted from the scenario guideline developed under the VALMER project [Herry et al., 2013]. The examples are mainly selected among the VALMER sites experience. Some others are examples available in other literature references. In that case, the original sources are always mentioned.

Section outline


4 BUILD SCENARIOS
Section LineSection coordination by M. Philippe11, J. Ballé-Béganton11 and D. Bailly11 based on written contributions from J. Herry7, W. Dodds9, M. Philippe11 and A. Winder3

Bullet point blue4.1 Scenarios, a tool to anticipate and consider the future
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.1.1 What do we mean by “scenarios”?
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.1.2 Different types of scenarios
Bullet point blue   Title level 34.1.2.1 Exploratory scenario: What might happen?
Bullet point blue   Title level 34.1.2.2 Normative scenario: How can a specific target be reached?
Bullet point blue   Title level 34.1.2.3 Predictive scenario: what will happen?
Bullet point blue4.2 Building scenarios, why and how?
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.2.1 PHASE 1: Illustrating the system being studied including natural processes and human activities
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.2.2 PHASE 2: Identifying drivers of change in the case study ecosystem
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.2.3 PHASE 3: Establishing the key variables and associating them to explore and build the scenarios
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.2.4 PHASE 4: Selecting and developing the format of the scenarios with stakeholders
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.2.5 PHASE 5: Using scenarios to create discussion on management options
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.2.6 In brief: List of tools that can be used for each phase of the scenario building process
Bullet point blue4.3 Toolbox for scenario building
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.1 Interviews with stakeholders and/or experts
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.2 Stakeholders matrix
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.3 BRAINSTORMING
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.4 DELPHI
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.5 REGNIER’S ABACUS
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.6 TOOLS TO REPRESENT THE SYSTEM, PRESENT AND COMBINE INFORMATION, SYNTHESIZE KNOWLEDGE
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.7 ARDI METHOD
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.8 DPSIR
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.9 PESTLE AND MATRICES TO CLASSIFY THE POSSIBLE CHANGES
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.10 BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.11 BACKCASTING
Bullet point blue   Title level 24.3.12 INVEST

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